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Read out an A/B test without fooling yourself

Verdict-first with the deciding number keeps readouts from burying the decision in statistics theater. The peeking flag, post-hoc segment quarantine, and believability check encode the three most common ways teams convince themselves of effects that are not there.

DataAnalyzeSuggested model: anthropic/claude-sonnet-5

Last reviewed July 17, 2026

The prompt
Write the readout for this A/B test.

Test setup (what changed, hypothesis, primary metric, planned duration and sample): {{setup}}
Results: {{results}}

Structure:
1. Verdict first: ship, do not ship, or extend, with the one number that decides it.
2. The primary metric: effect size with confidence interval, in absolute and relative terms. State whether the test reached its PLANNED sample; a test stopped early because it "looked significant" gets flagged as unreliable, with the reason (peeking inflates false positives).
3. Guardrails: every guardrail metric with its movement; any degradation gets weighed against the win explicitly.
4. Segments: only pre-registered segment cuts get causal language. Post-hoc segment findings go in a "hypotheses for the next test" list, clearly labeled; a segment dredged from 20 cuts is noise until retested.
5. The believability check: does the effect size pass the smell test given what changed? A 40 percent lift from a button color demands a data-quality audit before a celebration.
6. Decision and next step, including what we now believe about users that we did not before.

Never let a p-value substitute for the effect size and interval.
Run in idaptOpens a new chat with the prompt prefilled. Nothing sends until you press send.

Fill in the variables

VariableWhat it isExample
{{setup}}The test's pre-registrationnew onboarding checklist vs control; primary: week-1 activation; planned 2 weeks, 10k users per arm
{{results}}The numbers[paste the experiment dashboard export]

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