Research
Size a market
TAM, SAM and SOM with the arithmetic shown and the sources cited.
Fill it in
Who you sell to and where.
Which direction to reason from.
What one customer pays a year.
Your prompt
Size this market, Both, and compare. [the market] Annual price per customer: [your price] Show the arithmetic. A market size with no visible calculation is a number somebody made up, and every experienced reader treats it that way. Write it as a chain: population, the share that qualifies, the share that would ever buy, price, total. Each step gets a source or an explicit assumption. Bottom-up beats top-down and you should say so. "1% of a 40 billion market" is not a plan; "there are 82,000 of these businesses, we can reach 9,000, and 6% of those would pay 480 a year" is one somebody can disagree with productively. Name the number you are least sure of and what it would take to check it. That sentence is what makes the memo credible.
Use Size a marketOpens with everything above already filled in.
Why this works
A market size with no visible calculation is a number somebody made up, and experienced readers treat it that way. This writes the chain step by step with a source or an explicit assumption at each one, and names the figure it is least sure of.
Questions
- Top down or bottom up?
- Both by default, so you can see where they disagree. Bottom up is the one people believe.